5.24.2008

You want to talk about electability?

Who wants to about electability? I understand what the reality is at the moment when talking about potential Democratic party nominees. It seems Obama has it all wrapped up- all Clinton has to hope for is an assassination or some miraculous deal at or before the convention. Take a look at this graphic to the right.

What's it about? The graph is a general election poll. Although I have no idea who conducted the poll, the general idea behind this is that the blue-colored states are states that both Obama and Clinton both beat McCain, the Red states are states McCain won regardless of democratic nominee. The brown states are sates where only Obama beat McCain and the pink states are states that only Clinton beat Obama. Just looking at the differecne between pink and brown states, Clinton has an advantage in the electoral college. That's just straight electability for you.

Here's the breakdown:
  • The map is from http://www.electoral-vote.com accessed 5/24/08
  • Democrats will win 200 votes from the electoral college regardless of candidate.
  • McCain will win 144 votres from the electoral college regardless of the democratic candidate.
  • An Obama nomination will provide the Democrats with another 66 college votes and the Republicans 114 college votes. Final tally is D-266 vs. R-258.
  • A Clinton nomination will provide the Democrats with another 114 college votes and the Republicans with 66 college votes. Final tally is D-314 vs. R- 210
  • The numbers were too close in to call Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes- those 10 votes weren't accounted for in the tallies above.
So the short version is this: an Obama nomination will prove to be a much closer presidential race with McCain possibly winning (if the Republicans win Wisconsin). A Clinton nomination is projected to be a definitive victory.

What does this mean? Hillary Clinton is the more electable candidate for the Democrats, at least according to the poll above. I guess this means the nations is less sexist than racist. My opinion? I've reiterated that a couple times on this blog. I prefer Clinton, but I'm cool with Obama- very cool. That's all I got for now.

Wishing for a Democratic victory in November,
Greg

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

I heard that Ron Paul is still in this. Is that true, Senor Grego?

Greg said...

He never dropped out of the Republican primary contention, but there's no mathematically possible way he can win the nomination. Apparently some people think he's going to start some sort of coup in the Republican part during the convention. Who knows, it'd be the most interesting thing that happened in party politics since the Whigs died.